Methodology

What we measure

Marine Sentinel is an intelligence layer over the connected maritime environmental system — including the littoral environment from catchment to coast to adjacent sea. The first regional AOI is Equatorial Maritime Southeast Asia (EMSEA). Singapore and the Straits (SMEIR) are the first detailed case study inside that envelope. Phase 1 pollution intelligence is demonstrated via the Nikoi historical event — not as the geographic boundary of the product.

Causal grammar

SOURCE → ACTIVITY/CONDITION → DISTURBANCE → RELEASE → PATHWAY
  → TRANSPORT → EXPOSURE → RECEPTOR → IMPACT/CONSEQUENCE

LAND / PEAT / FOREST → THERMAL ANOMALY / FIRE → EMISSION / SMOKE
  → ATMOSPHERIC TRANSPORT → HAZE / PM2.5 / AEROSOL
  → EXPOSURE → MARINE / COASTAL / HUMAN / OPERATIONAL RECEPTOR
  → CONSEQUENCE

Atmospheric transport is another pathway in the same grammar, not a separate product.

Epistemic separation

• WHAT WE OBSERVED
• WHAT WE INFER
• WHAT WE MODEL
• WHAT WE FORECAST
• WHAT WE DO NOT KNOW

Modes REPLAY / LIVE / SCENARIO are never conflated. Data labels are mandatory on every consequential datum.

• THERMAL ANOMALY ≠ confirmed forest fire ≠ smoke source ≠ Singapore haze source ≠ landholder
• FIRE NEAR A CONCESSION ≠ concession caused fire
• SMOKE TRANSPORT MODEL ≠ measured PM2.5
• PM2.5 ELEVATION ≠ forest-fire attribution
• AIS GAP ≠ deception · RENDEZVOUS ≠ STS · STS ≠ illegal transfer
• SANCTIONED VESSEL ≠ polluter · VESSEL NEAR SLICK ≠ source of slick
• OLD TANKER ≠ unsafe · OPAQUE OWNERSHIP ≠ illegal · RISK CONCENTRATION ≠ proven harm
• SURVEILLANCE CAPABILITY ≠ enforcement action · SHADOW-FLEET LABEL ≠ legal finding

Confidence

Confidence is multidimensional. Detection, classification, association, and causal attribution are separate scores. Every score exposes a WHY chain: inputs, weights, evidence, assumptions, missing information, contradictions, and model version.

We never present an unexplained black-box risk number as decision authority.

Attribution language

• associated
• potential source
• candidate source
• probable source
• high-confidence attribution
• confirmed by authority

These are not interchangeable. Phase 1 Nikoi vessel language remains at potential / candidate level.

What we never claim

• We never equate detection with attribution.
• We never equate association with causation.
• We never equate ecological connectivity with legal jurisdiction.
• We never label a vessel as a confirmed polluter without authority finding.
• We never use guilty / criminal / illegal polluter language as system status.
• We never hide contradictory source claims.
• We never disguise synthetic, delayed or historical data as live observation.
• We never treat blank map space as environmental absence.
• We never convert habitat area automatically into carbon stock, GDP or FTE.

Candidate association (model v0.1.0)

Candidate Association Score ≈
    spatial relationship
  + temporal relationship
  + track compatibility
  + trajectory relationship
  + plume / transport compatibility
  + source characteristics
  + corroborating evidence
  − contradictory evidence

Formula is inspectable and versioned. Geographic proximity alone is never treated as causation.